OscarWatch 2011

The nominations came out today, so let the handicapping begin!

BEST PICTURE
127 HOURS
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
THE FIGHTER
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY
TRUE GRIT
WINTER'S BONE

A grand ten, I don't mind saying. I've only not seen The Fighter, 127 Hours and Winter's Bone and I must say there isn't a true clinker in the bunch. A lot of people are divided on Inception. I actually ended up liking it a lot more AFTER I saw it then during.
But I think the race here is really between King's Speech and The Social Network.
It's still too early to call. But I am giving an early lead to The King's Speech for a number of reasons. While TSN took the non-vaunted Golden Globes the Producer's Guild gave the award to KS. And I would never ever underestimate Harvey Weinstein and a critically lauded tearjerker.
Right now it's leaning
The King's Speech - 65%,
The Social Network - 35%
We'll see what happens after the SAGgies.

BEST ACTOR
JEFF BRIDGES - TRUE GRIT
JAVIER BARDEM - BIUTIFUL
JESSE EISENBERG - THE SOCIAL NETWORK
COLIN FIRTH - THE KING’S SPEECH
JAMES FRANCO - 127 HOURS

Is there anyone who doesn't think this is Colin Firth's gimme? No one has seen Biutiful, Eisenberg is too cold, Bridges just won and Franco has time. It's a lock
Colin Firth - 100%

BEST ACTRESS
ANNETTE BENING - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
NICOLE KIDMAN - RABBIT HOLE (Lionsgate)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE - WINTER’S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
NATALIE PORTMAN - BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS - BLUE VALENTINE (The Weinstein Co)

Another lock category. Sure there are some who are dying to give this to Annette Bening but most people know in their hearts that The Kids...was mediocre at best and had no ending. Whereas Portman transformed herself and disappeared into the role. Plus she's been escalating royalty since The Professional and she opened a Rom-Com to decent numbers last week.
Natalie Portman - 100%

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE - THE FIGHTER
JOHN HAWKES - WINTER’S BONE
JEREMY RENNER - THE TOWN
MARK RUFFALO - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
GEOFFREY RUSH - THE KING’S SPEECH

Another locked category. It's Bale's award. The Batman numbers are astounding but, even more important, is that Bale has been working since Empire of the fucking Sun when he was like, 9. He's the male Portman. And he disappears into his roles. Listening to him speak in his own accent has become disconcerting. No one saw Winter's Bone, Renner is the token nominee for a film that got no love, Ruffalo famously worked 6 days on Kids and Rush has an Oscar already.
Christian Bale - 100%

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - THE FIGHTER
HELENA BONHAM CARTER - THE KING’S SPEECH
MELISSA LEO - THE FIGHTER
HAILEE STEINFELD - TRUE GRIT
JACKI WEAVER - ANIMAL KINGDOM

NOW we get to the real race. Amy Adams is rapidly turning in to the Meryl Streep of her generation. This is her THIRD Oscar nomination in 6 years. That's crazy. And she won't win here, either. Neither will Carter. This fight is between the newbie, Steinfeld, the vet, Leo and the workhorse, Weaver. Who? I know. I don't get it, either. I didn't see the movie but it's the kind of nomination that gets traction and becomes the sentimental fave. But I can see Steinfeld easily getting this award as she's in almost every scene of this movie and she's terrific. Leo has been nominated for the second time in 4 years BUT her Golden Globe speech was so weird that the Academy might be turned off.
Haley Steinfeld: 35%
Melissa Leo: 35%
Jackie Weaver: 30%
Have to see what happens in the next few weeks.

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
TOY STORY 3
THE ILLUSIONIST
Would YOU wanna be nominated in the same year as TS3? I didn't think so.
Toy Story 3: 100%

BEST DIRECTOR
DARREN ARONOFSKY - BLACK SWAN
DAVID FINCHER - THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOM HOOPER - THE KING'S SPEECH
JOEL AND ETHAN COEN - TRUE GRIT
DAVID O. RUSSELL - THE FIGHTER

I think this is actually an easy pick. It's Fincher all the way. Look at his legacy. Se7en. Fight Club. Button. Etc. And he pulls off understated brillioance with Social Network? No question. Aronofsky needs a hug, Hooper made a tv movie, the Coens just won and Russell is still thought of as the jerk who yelled at Lily Tomlin,
Fincher: 99%
Hooper: 1%
This is all predicated on early momentum.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANOTHER YEAR, Mike Leigh (Sony Pictures Classics)
THE FIGHTER, Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (Paramount)
INCEPTION, Christopher Nolan (Warner Bros)
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
THE KING'S SPEECH, David Seidler

Another huge battle! The Kids Are All Right is terrible. But it has made some cash and this category is usually the consolation prize. But! The King's Speech has a great story of an author who was a writer of such crap like a bio pic on the making of The partridge Family but he also wrote Tucker: The man and His Dream, which is a favorite Coppola film of mine.
Oh, this is gonna be a fun category and an indicator. If King's Speech wins, look for some upsets later in the evening. Or not.
The Kids Are All Right: 75%
The King's Speech: 25%

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 HOURS, Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
TOY STORY 3, Michael Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Aaron Sorkin
WINTER'S BONE, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
TRUE GRIT, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

Just change the name to the Aaron Sorkin Award for Writing and be done with it.
Aaron Sorkin: 100%

There you have it. My predictions. Like always I am 100% correct with a 100% chance that I will change my mind.