The Oscar Race: A Snap Judgment

Best Picture race: The Social Network vs True Grit. In this scenario Social Network wins as The Coens won a couple years back for No Country. The Spolier? The King's Speech. Result? Social Network's backlash and lack of tear jerking moments pushes The King's Speech over the line.

Best Actor Race: Jeff Bridges Vs. Colin Firth. Bridges also just won recently, though his Rooster Cogburn is amazing. Firth gets the Oscar hands down. May as well give it to him now. Dark Horse: James Franco. But the guy is so ubiquitous the Academy will believe he will get his due later. And No one wants to watch him cut off his arm. Nobody.

Best Actress Race: Annette Bening Vs. Natalie Portman. Aronofsky continues to catapult actors to nominated roles. This time Portman takes it for a wound-too-tight ballerina over a fine performance by Bening in an ultimately unsatisfying movie.

Best Supporting Actor Race: Christian Bale vs. Geoffrey Rush. Hard to call. Big toss up. Bale has been disappearing into roles and the Academy loves that. But Geoffrey Rush is...well, him. If Rush wins this look for a King's Speech sweep. Personal Spoiler: Armie Hammer was AMAZING in TSN.

Best Supporting Actress: Is this a race? Hailee Steinfeld is in every moment of True Grit and yet, she would easily lose the Best Actress category. And I still feel like, even though she is in every moment, she plays center to a bunch of amazing actors. So she deserves this. Possible Spoiler: Melissa Leo. Who? Exactly.

Best Adapted Screenplay Race: True Grit vs. The Social Network. I can't see the Academy not giving this to Sorkin. This will be The Social Network's sole big win.

Best Original Screenplay Race: The Kids Are All Right vs. The King's Speech. Total Toss up. This would the consolation prize for Kids but if The King's Speech is on that roll look for it to take the prize.

Best Director Race: Wow, this is hard. But I'm thinking Fincher gets this for a masterwork. Aronofsky is too dour for the Academy, consistently good though he is. The King's Speech is about the screenplay and acting. And the Coens just won.

Of course, all of this can change moment to moment but this is my thinking right now. It's been a while since there's been a split between Picture and Director. But I think this is one of those years. All of that could change tonight after the Drunken Dozen, I mean, The Golden Globe Awards.