OscarWatch 2011

So, the Saggies, the DGAies, the Proddies, the Globies, are all done. And where are we?

Things have changed decidedly.


BEST PICTURE
127 HOURS
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
THE FIGHTER
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
THE KING'S SPEECH
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOY STORY
TRUE GRIT
WINTER'S BONE

Previous prediction:
The King's Speech - 65%,
The Social Network - 35%

I think it's safe to say it's now The King's Speech to lose which really sucks. It's a nice little movie but, let's face it, The Social Network is about the website that has brought down a "King" in Egypt and who knows where else?

New prediction:
The King's Speech - 95%
The Social Network - 5%


BEST ACTOR
JEFF BRIDGES - TRUE GRIT
JAVIER BARDEM - BIUTIFUL
JESSE EISENBERG - THE SOCIAL NETWORK
COLIN FIRTH - THE KING’S SPEECH
JAMES FRANCO - 127 HOURS

Previous prediction:
Colin Firth - 100%

No change. This is a lock

BEST ACTRESS
ANNETTE BENING - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT (Focus Features)
NICOLE KIDMAN - RABBIT HOLE (Lionsgate)
JENNIFER LAWRENCE - WINTER’S BONE (Roadside Attractions)
NATALIE PORTMAN - BLACK SWAN (Fox Searchlight)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS - BLUE VALENTINE (The Weinstein Co)

Previous prediction:
Natalie Portman - 100%

There's some blog-buzz about Annette Bening but that's just bore-talk.
No change.
It's Portman's

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
CHRISTIAN BALE - THE FIGHTER
JOHN HAWKES - WINTER’S BONE
JEREMY RENNER - THE TOWN
MARK RUFFALO - THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
GEOFFREY RUSH - THE KING’S SPEECH

Previous prediction:
Christian Bale - 100%

I'm hearing little birds talking about Geoffrey Rush. Enough that it's got me thinking. There's been enough splitting on this category to change my mind a little.

New Prediction:
Christian Bale - 75%
Geoffrey Rush - 25%

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
AMY ADAMS - THE FIGHTER
HELENA BONHAM CARTER - THE KING’S SPEECH
MELISSA LEO - THE FIGHTER
HAILEE STEINFELD - TRUE GRIT
JACKI WEAVER - ANIMAL KINGDOM

Previous prediction:
Haley Steinfeld: 35%
Melissa Leo: 35%
Jackie Weaver: 30%

Well, this has changed quite a bit. After the multiple wins I have to say that it's pretty rock solid for Leo. Not a lock, given the weirdness of her acceptance speeches, though.

Melissa Leo: 90%
Heilie Steinfeld: 10%

BEST ANIMATED PICTURE
HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON
TOY STORY 3
THE ILLUSIONIST

Previous prediction:
Toy Story 3: 100%

No change

BEST DIRECTOR
DARREN ARONOFSKY - BLACK SWAN
DAVID FINCHER - THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TOM HOOPER - THE KING'S SPEECH
JOEL AND ETHAN COEN - TRUE GRIT
DAVID O. RUSSELL - THE FIGHTER

This is the one that pisses me off and has me all confoozled. I don't think it's a lock in any way but when was the last time a DGA winner lost the Oscar?
Previous prediction:
Fincher: 99%
Hooper: 1%

New Prediction:
Hooper 60%
Fincher - 40%

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
ANOTHER YEAR, Mike Leigh (Sony Pictures Classics)
THE FIGHTER, Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson, Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson (Paramount)
INCEPTION, Christopher Nolan (Warner Bros)
THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT, Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
THE KING'S SPEECH, David Seidler

Previous prediction:
The Kids Are All Right: 75%
The King's Speech: 25%

I don't think Kids has any more momentum. The truth is, I think voters saw the movie and realized just how mediocre it really is.

New Prediction:
The King's Speech - 100%

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
127 HOURS, Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
TOY STORY 3, Michael Arndt, Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton, and Lee Unkrich
THE SOCIAL NETWORK, Aaron Sorkin
WINTER'S BONE, Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
TRUE GRIT, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen

Previous prediction:
New Prediction:
Just change the name to the Aaron Sorkin Award for Writing and be done with it.
Aaron Sorkin: 100%